For example, many sportsbooks only offer an option to bet on the NFL moneyline if the spread is between 3 and 10 points. If one team is a heavy favorite (and the spread is listed at 14 points or more), many sportsbooks will choose to offer only spread and totals bets. Conference Championship Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week Kansas City Chiefs (-170) vs. Buffalo Bills It’s so difficult to pick against the Buffalo, who I have touted as a breakout. It will break down the basics of NFL betting, from various types of bets, to strategy, to tips on how to predict trends and think independently. If you heed this advice and weigh your options and bankroll carefully, you could turn a consistent profit throughout the 2020 NFL season. The sports betting industry is on a meteoric rise in this country and we’re approaching one of the first NFL seasons where it will be possible to legally wager on most games outside of Nevada.Even in a largely illegal market, the American Gaming Association estimated that bettors wagered over $4.3 billion on Super Bowl LV alone. With ample time between games and a wealth of strategy to. BetUS is a fully licensed sportsbook providing a reliable and secure sports betting service to millions of satisfied online betting customers world wide since 1994. BetUS offers football betting, live and NFL odds all season long.

1. How To Bet Moneyline
2. Betting Moneyline Nfl
3. Nfl Betting Predictions
4. Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy Predictions
5. Nfl Betting Model
6. Football Moneyline Betting

The sports betting menu is crowded with choices. Some of the wagering opportunities you’ll come across are a bit on the advanced side, but there are also ones which are straightforward and easy to wrap your head around.

Moneyline bets fall into the latter category. For these wagers, you’re simply choosing the winner of the game. That’s it. There’s no point spread to worry about or anything like that. If the side you pick wins the game, you’re golden.

While the concept itself is simple, there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to the moneyline. There are times when the bets make sense, situations where you should pass, and other scenarios in which you may want to do a little shopping.

We’re going to take a detailed look at everything you need to know right here. For starters, here are the best spots to place your bets online legally and safely.

How Does the Moneyline Work?

After a quick glance at the moneyline odds, you will immediately know which side is the favorite or the underdog in a game. Oddsmakers will attach odds to both sides of the equation.

The favorite will be designated with negative odds, while the underdog will have positive odds attached. Here’s what they’ll look like at an online sportsbook using a random NFL game as an example.

• Los Angeles Rams +110
• San Francisco 49ers -130

In this fictitious game, the 49ers are favored, and bets on that side will pay out at odds of -130 if correct. For the underdog Rams, successful bets on that side pay out at odds of +110.

So how do the odds impact what the actual return will be. Here’s the math on both sides for a $100 wager.

• $100 bet at odds of +110 = potential total return of $210 (the original $100 bet plus a profit of $110).
• $100 bet at odds of -130 = potential total return of $176.90 (the original $100 stake plus a profit of $76.90).

As you can see, a successful bet at positive odds offers the chance for greater returns than successful bets at negative odds.

However, that doesn’t mean you should randomly place your wagers on underdogs and hope for the best. Normal handicapping rules apply with moneyline betting, and the goal is to place your bets on the side you feel gives you the greatest chance of being right.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline wager is a straight bet on the winner of a game. There are no point spreads attached or any other factors to consider. The sole concern is which side will win the contest.

After taking a look at the moneyline odds for a game you’re interested in betting on, you’ll know which side is expected to win. The favorite will have negative odds attached, while the underdog has positive odds.

Once you know that, the task at hand is to handicap the game and figure out which side you like. We’ll cover some tips on handicapping in a bit. For now, just know that it’s not as complex as it may sound.

Returns are going to vary based on which side you bet on. In a nutshell, you’ll see larger returns for correct bets on underdogs, but you shouldn’t let that be the determining factor on your choices.

There will be times when you find that the underdog makes the most sense, but there will also be plenty of times when you come up with the favorite as the answer to the question.

It can be helpful to be selective with which wagers you place on the moneyline. We’ll be covering that in more detail as we move along.

Betting on Favorites vs. Underdogs

When looking at moneyline odds, the favorite and the underdog will be readily apparent.

• Chicago Bulls +120
• Houston Rockets -140

In this fictitious NBA matchup, the Rockets are a decent-sized favorite. You’ll see less of a return for betting on that side as a result, while successful wagers on the underdog Bulls would see a bigger return.

Once again, it’s important not to let the potential return be your guide. Making the correct call is the bottom line, so your choices should revolve around which side you think has the greater chance to win.

To that end, it can be helpful to break down the game first prior to worrying about what the potential return will be. After you do this enough times, you’ll be able to figure out the range of returns quickly anyway, and that can help you be more selective with your choices.

For example, you may find that huge favorites are relatively safe wagers, but that the returns aren’t what you have in mind on a long-term basis. As such, you make a concerted effort to look for other opportunities first, such as favorites at odds of -180 or less.

After breaking down enough games on the other side, you’ll begin to understand that huge underdogs are that way for a reason. Sure, they’ll come in here and there, but solely focusing on big underdogs and hoping for a big score is not a recipe for a healthy bankroll.

Balance is a big key with moneyline betting, and the ultimate return on investment is the bottom line to focus on.

Examples of Moneyline Betting

Moneyline odds are offered for all of the major North American sports. The odds are presented in the same way for each, so you’ll be able to interpret them quickly.

For example, here’s a moneyline for an MLB game with a huge favorite.

• San Francisco Giants +180
• Los Angeles Dodgers -220

At first glance, you can quickly tell that the Dodgers have a big advantage for this contest, such as a stronger overall team or a substantial edge in pitching.

Now, let’s take a look at an NHL contest which has much tighter odds.

• Boston Bruins +100
• Montreal Canadiens -120

After looking at this game, we can reasonably assume that these two squads are relatively even. The Canadiens are favored, but the gap in odds is far from substantial.

For basketball and football, point spread bets receive a ton of attention, but there’s also moneyline betting for these two sports. A common misconception is that there’s not enough value to be found on the moneyline in comparison to the spread.

If you solely focus on big favorites, that’s true. However, there are plenty of games in which the moneyline odds are tight. When you look at the point spread for these contests, you can quickly see which ones may have favorable moneyline odds.

As an example, a point spread of 2.5 points or less is a good indicator of a tight game. That being the case, the moneyline odds will have decent value on both sides that’s worth exploring.

Moneyline Betting on Close Games

Speaking of close games, you’ll come across many of these on the odds board regardless of which sport you’re focused on. When evenly-matched teams square off, it can be close to a toss-up in terms of which side will win.

Oddsmakers recognize this, and they will price the games accordingly. For example, in a really tight NFL game, you could see moneyline odds like this.

• Minnesota Vikings -105
• New Orleans Saints -115

When the odds are in such a close range, the difference in return is pretty small. However, that doesn’t mean you should flip a coin and hope for the best.

You’ll still be handicapping the game in search of a winner. It doesn’t matter how even teams may seem at first glance or according to the odds. There are almost always points of difference to be found, and you can always pass on those that are legitimately too close to call.

Moneyline Bet Odds and Line Moves

When odds are released for a slate of games, these are known as the opening lines. After they’re out, the betting public has a chance to weigh in.

Depending on how the action comes in, this can lead to a shift in lines. For example, if lots of money comes in on the favorite, odds on that side will rise in a bid to even out the action.

For bookmakers, the goal is to not be too lopsided one way or the other. If they get a ton of bets on one side and few on the other, that opens up liability on their end. To limit situations such as this, they will adjust the odds where needed in a bid to attract action on the other side.

Lines can also move based on new information that emerges after the initial release. A lineup change, trade, or previously undisclosed injury are among the things which can have an impact.

A good rule of thumb is to examine any changes from the opening line to the time you are ready to place your bets. This can point you to what the overall market sentiment is on the game, and also potentially alert you that there’s some news out there that you may have missed.

Moneyline shopping – What is it, how do you do it?

All odds are not created equal. While major sportsbook operators are typically in range, you can find some ticks of difference, especially on the moneyline.

In general, the differences won’t be eye-popping. Bookmakers that are far off the beaten path will stick out like a sore thumb. As a result, bettors will quickly jump on that line and bring it back more to the level of the general consensus.

To find these points of difference, you’ll need to engage in what’s known as line shopping. This refers to checking the odds and lines at different sportsbooks in a quest to find the best price.

If you were going to buy something online and found differing prices in a few different spots, you would naturally gravitate towards the better deal. It’s the same thing with sports betting odds.

For example, if one book is offering odds of -140 on a favorite, but another book is at -130, the better deal is at the latter. You’ll get a better return there for placing your wager on that particular game.

How to Handicap Moneyline Bets

Handicapping games can sound formidable when you’re unfamiliar with the concept. However, it can actually be a simple process if you allow it to be.

It can be quite easy to get lost in research, and that can make it just as simple to get overwhelmed with information. Especially when starting out, keep it simple and focus on the things that really matter.

Here’s a simple five-point plan that you can use as a starting point.

• The odds and lines for the game. What is this telling you?
• Overall strength of the two teams. Is there a marked difference between the squads?
• Home/road splits. How do the two teams perform in the role they have for this game?
• Key Stats. Points for and against, and other sport-specific stats that really make a difference in the outcome.
• Recent Play. Is one team playing much better than the other recently?

The process gets quicker the more times you go through it. Once you have a handle on it, you can begin to tweak and personalize it to your specifications, such as by adding more stats into the equation that you feel really impact the outcome.

The Bottom Line on Moneyline Betting

Moneyline bets are straight forward wagers in which you are simply deciding which side you think will win. For each game on the docket, oddsmakers will designate a favorite and underdog.

Which side is which will be reflected in the odds. Favorites will have negative odds, while the underdog will have positive odds. The odds tell us the likelihood of something happening, as well as what the potential return will be for our wagers.

Moneyline odds are found for all of the major sports. The odds can shift based on market action, as well as news which may develop after the initial release.

There are a number of different systems for handicapping moneyline odds. We’ve included a simple one here in this article which you can use as a starting point. As you advance with sports betting, you’ll be able to implement your own system and tweak as needed.

Moneyline betting is one of the most popular ways to gamble on the NFL, and one of my favorites. I like moneyline betting because it’s so straightforward: in simplest terms, moneyline betting strategy is just picking which team is going to win the game – straight-up. No handicaps, no line, no adjustments – just choose one team or the other.

Of course, things get a little more complicated – I’ll use the rest of this page to explain.

But before I get into the details, the first thing I want to remind you is that moneyline bets are one situation in which every single part of my general three-stage NFL Betting Strategy applies fully and completely. In order to make moneyline bets, I utilize the three-stage process you’ll find outlined in that page: gathering information, utilizing checks and balances, and visualizing the game. If you want to know the specifics of what information you need to gather for placing moneyline bets, check out that page.

We also list our top recommended NFL betting sites here, for your convenience.

In this page, in addition to this general NFL betting strategy, I’ll go through the following details, specific to moneyline betting:

• How moneyline bets work and how to interpret the odds
• How to know when to place a wager on a moneyline bet
• How to find good value and make money in the long run

Let’s get started by talking about what a moneyline bet is, and how the odds work.

What Are Moneyline Odds?

As I mentioned above, moneyline is a very meat-and-potatoes way to wager on NFL games. Tons and tons of people across the world place moneyline wagers on every single NFL game, every single week – both regular season and playoffs.

A moneyline bet is simply a wager placed on one team or the other to win the game. To explain further, let’s take an in-depth look at a typical moneyline bet.

This example comes from Week 16 of the 2016/17 NFL season: on Sunday Night Football, the Denver Broncos took on the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas Day. The Broncos were 8–6 under first-year quarterback Trevor Siemian, being a year removed from winning the Super Bowl and having won the division for 5 straight years, while the Chiefs were 10–4 under veteran QB Alex Smith, having won 10 straight games against their division opponents and gunning for a first-round playoff bye.

Despite hailing from the best division in football at the time, when the game kicked off both teams were coming off a loss: the Chiefs had lost 17–19 to the Titans in Week 15 – a poor offensive showing – and the Broncos had lost 3–16 to the Patriots – that game only a week removed from their own loss to the Titans. The last time the two AFC West teams met, in Week 12, the Broncos had won in overtime 30–27.

One final piece of information that helps us truly understand the situation for this bet: at this point in the season, going into Week 16, the Oakland Raiders had already clinched a playoff berth at 11–3, the Chiefs had a greater than 99% chance to make the playoffs, and the Broncos needed a miracle to limp into the postseason – their playoff chances were at only 17%.

The more interesting race was for the division title: going into Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs already knew that the Raiders had won earlier that day, but they also knew that Derek Carr had broken his leg during the game. If the Chiefs could polish off the Broncos on SNF and then the Broncos could turn around and beat the Raiders (sans Derek Carr) the following week, the Chiefs would win both the division and the coveted first-round playoff bye.

In this context, the Week 16 moneyline odds at the Bovada sportsbook included the following odds for the “MONEYLINE” portion of their Broncos-Chiefs listing:

• Chiefs -185
• Broncos +165

What did this line signify? This means that the Chiefs were favored to win the game. Intuitively, we understand that Kansas City had a better chance to win this game: the Chiefs were the better team, with the better record, with more to play for. Not to mention the fact that they were at home, on Sunday Night Football, with a league-leading defense facing off against a first-year quarterback.

But how, exactly, did the odds reflect this? Remember the golden rule of sports gambling: the goal of odds-makers is always to promote even action on both sides of a wager. Due to the fact that the Chiefs were the obvious choice to win the game, sportsbooks needed to incentivize gamblers to take the Broncos, and disincentivize gamblers to take the Chiefs.

This is why the Chiefs were getting negative odds while the Broncos were getting positive odds. Don’t be mistaken: the “negative” and “positive” here don’t refer to getting a negative or positive return for your investment. What it means is that in the case of the Chiefs, you have to wager $185 to win $100. In the case of the Broncos, you win $165 on a $100 wager.

Put another way, these odds mean that a $100 wager on the Chiefs (the favorite) would earn only a $54 profit. The same $100 wager on the Broncos (the underdog) would earn a $165 profit. So if you bet $100 on the Broncos, and they won, you would end up with $265 in your pocket at the end of the day. If you bet $100 on the Chiefs, and the Chiefs won, you would end up with $154, once you got your initial principle back along with your profit.

How To Bet Moneyline

In short: negative odds disincentivize the more likely outcome; positive odds incentivize the less likely outcome. This is how the system of moneyline odds work. Because this odds format is favored in the United States (as opposed to European/decimal odds or UK/fractional odds), this format is also called American odds.

Now that we’ve got a basic understanding of how moneyline odds work, let’s take a look at how to know whether the odds offer good value, and when you should place a moneyline bet.

When Should You Place a Moneyline Bet?

In the example above, the Chiefs were slightly favored to beat the Broncos. In the end, Kansas City did end up beating Denver by a score of 33 to 10 on Sunday Night Football, so those gamblers that placed a wager on the Chiefs -185 to win the game would have seen their wager pay off.

The reason I picked this game as a good example of a moneyline bet is because this is the range of odds that you will typically see for most evenly-matched games. Most of the time, the favorite will be getting odds between -100 (or EVEN) and -200, while the underdog will be getting odds between +100 (EVEN) and +200.

In the most evenly-matched games, (or alternatively in games for which the outcome feels completely unknown or meaningless – toss-up games), both teams may have odds that approximate even odds. Sticking with the same slate of games as the Broncos/Chiefs game above, Week 16 of the 2016/17 season also featured the Cincinnati Bengals getting +100 against the Houston Texans, who were getting -120.

This leads to our first principle: the closer together the two teams’ moneyline odds are, the less certain the outcome of the game is. In this case, betting the underdog has a higher payout because it is a higher risk.

And this makes sense when you think about things from the perspective of the odds-makers. Due to the fact that there are already a plenitude of arguments for both sides to win the game, there’s no need for odds-makers to push the action to one side or another. There will already be even action simply due to the mixed opinions on what the outcome of the game will be in reality.

On the other end of the spectrum, when one team is certainly going to win the game, and no one believes that the underdog could ever pull off an upset, the gap between the two teams’ odds can become quite dramatic indeed. Sticking with the same week of the same season, the Seahawks were getting -410 odds at home against the Cardinals (+375). Another game, pitting the 12–2 soon-to-be-Super-Bowl-champion Patriots against the 4–10 starting-a-rookie-QB Jets, had odds at +850 for the Jets and -1429 for the Patriots – among the worst moneyline odds you’ll ever, ever see.

This leads to our second principle, the converse of the first: the farther away the two teams’ moneyline odds are, the more certain the outcome of the game is. In this case, betting the favorite has a lower payout because it is a lower risk.

With these two principles established, it’s not too complicated to understand when it’s a good time to place a moneyline bet. First off, consider the payoffs involved in each of the situations listed above, presented from the least certain outcome to the most certain outcome:

• If you put $100 on the Jets to win at +850, you risk $100 for an $850 profit.
• If you put $100 on the Cardinals to win at +370, you risk $100 for a $370 profit.
• If you put $100 on the Broncos to win at +165, you risk $100 for a $165 profit.
• If you put $100 on the Bengals to win at +100, you risk $100 for a $100 profit.
• If you put $100 on the Texans to win at -120, you risk $100 for an $83 profit.
• If you put $100 on the Chiefs to win at -185, you risk $100 for a $54 profit.
• If you put $100 on the Seahawks to win at -410, you risk $100 for a $24 profit.
• If you put $100 on the Patriots to win at -1429, you risk $100 for a $7 profit.

Think about this last case: the Patriots were essentially guaranteed to beat the Jets (and they did, in spectacular fashion, 41–3). But with a payout of $7 on a $100 investment, even getting your original $100 back you’ve only made a 7% return on investment. Considering that the average rate of return in a growth market mutual fund is between 8-12%, you’re better off putting your money in the bank than gambling with it if the odds are this low.

These types of considerations fall into the category of value betting. For moneyline bets, the only thing that matters is whether you picked the winning team. In this case, if the Patriots win by 1 point in overtime, or by 38 points in regulation, you get the same $7 profit. You don’t get any more money for being more right about the outcome. If you’re right, you win; if you’re wrong, you lose.

So in this case, you should place a wager on a moneyline bet when you believe that the bet holds good value, which is to say when you feel certain that one team is going to win the game (i.e. low risk), and the moneyline odds still offer enough value to make the wager worthwhile (i.e. high reward).

At this point, you might be saying: but how do I know if I’m getting good value? When does this actually happen in reality? The short answer is that there isn’t really a great way to explain it – it’s not something you can figure out with some magic formula (though believe me, people have certainly tried). This is where the skill and experience portions of NFL moneyline betting strategy comes into play.

Betting Moneyline Nfl

But even with this caveat having been given, let’s take a stab at some general guidelines that will help you bet on only odds that offer good value, and make money in the long run with moneyline betting.

How Do You Make Money with Moneyline Betting?

As I mentioned immediately above and as I explain in detail in my general NFL Betting Strategy page, making money with any kind of gambling is a long-term process. Like any other profession, it is a skill that takes time and effort to develop. NFL gambling provides a viable way to make money, and I’ve been employed for more than 15 years gambling on the NFL. But understand that it’s not a get-rich-quick scheme.

With moneyline odds, the biggest factor involved in making money in the long-run is being smarter and more disciplined at wagering only on good value bets. This is a skill that you will develop over time; as you place more wagers you’ll get more of a feel for it, and you’ll get better as time goes on.

I wish I could tell you something like when the favorite is getting -180 and the underdog is getting +240, bet X dollars on the favorite, say 10 Our Fathers, do a Mystical Rain Dance, and collect your guaranteed payout. But the reason I can’t be specific about the numbers is because there really isn’t really any specific formula based on odds and numbers that is guaranteed to work. It always depends on the situation.

The closest thing to a general rule I can give is this: the key to a good value bet is when you feel certain (or more certain) of a given outcome, while the gambling public (or the specific odds-maker) feels differently. Let’s take an example.

Let’s make up a narrative about the Cardinals/Seahawks game mentioned above. The Cardinals were getting +375 and the Seahawks were getting -410, indicating that the gambling public strongly believed that the Seahawks were going to win the game, and the odds-makers shifted the line in this direction in order to promote even action on both sides.

Nfl Betting Predictions

Without going into too much detail, though, let’s imagine that you believe the odds are totally wrong, and you’re even a little confused as to why the Cardinals aren’t favored. Let’s imagine that you are thinking back to the earlier matchup between these two teams, which ended in a tie, and you believe that due to the fact that it is a divisional game the outcome will be decided by one possession or less.

This hypothetical bet would constitute an ideal value bet. Once again, the two components you look for are:

• 1) Do I believe strongly that one team is definitely going to win?
• 2) Do the odds offer a satisfactory return on investment if I bet what I believe?

In this case, due to the fact that what you believe is contrary to the belief of the gambling public, both of these components are present, and it is a good value bet.

Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy Predictions

In my experience, this type of situation is fairly common. What I mean is that good value bets often arise when the gambling public is wrong about a game, and you happen to recognize this beforehand. Alternatively, odds-makers might flat out misjudge the opinion of the gambling public (especially initially), and you’re able to capitalize on their mistake before they have a chance to correct it.

One of the feelings that I have come to trust the most is disbelief: the feeling when I look at a line, do a double-take, double-check that the line I saw is correct, and then say to myself Why in the world is that the line? Or in the case of moneyline odds, Why in the world are the odds so high/low? It’s this feeling, that the odds-makers and/or the gambling public are just flat out wrong, that clues me in that I might have a good value bet.

As you progress as an NFL gambler, you’ll begin to find that some of these patterns for when the gambling public is usually wrong about a game can be predicted in advance.

Often times, touts and other gambling charlatans will codify these patterns into “systems” of gambling, that supposedly work perfectly 100% of the time. These systems include things like home underdogs on Monday Night Football, road team favorites coming off of a bye week, or teams that have played both incredible offense and incredible defense for three straight contests.

As I have mentioned on another page, these “systems” are not wrong, but they’re not always right. The gambling public will often fail to take into account some of the patterns that these systems pick up on, and for this reason, if you try out these systems and give them a go, they can help tip you off to finding good value bets.

But in the end, the way to make money with moneyline betting is simply to wager only on bets that offer good value. With time, practice, and experience, you’ll come to understand what makes a good value bet, and moneyline bets will become one of the best arrows in your quiver as a profitable NFL gambler.

Nfl Betting Model

Summary: NFL Moneyline Betting Strategy

Moneyline betting is one of the most straightforward and most popular ways to gamble on the outcome of NFL games. In simplest terms, moneyline betting strategy comes down to picking the winner of an NFL game straight-up – both regular season and playoffs. To make moneyline bets, I utilize my three-stage process: gathering information, utilizing checks and balances, and visualizing the game.

The system of “moneyline odds” (also called American odds) that sportsbooks set up for this type of bet usually involves a favorite getting negative odds (e.g. Chiefs -185) and an underdog getting positive odds (e.g. Broncos +165). Odds-makers use this system to prompt even action on both sides: the negative odds disincentivize the more likely outcome; the positive odds incentivize the less likely outcome.

Generally, when both sides have a fair chance of winning, the favorite will be getting odds between -100 (or EVEN) and -200, while the underdog will be getting odds between +100 (EVEN) and +200. This is because there is already even action for simply picking the game straight-up. When one team is heavily favored, and the outcome is more certain, the gap between the odds becomes wider and wider.

Accordingly, in order to make money on moneyline wagers it’s important to find good value. If a team is getting hugely positive odds (e.g. from +400 to +1000 and more), there is a massive reward but a high risk (i.e. the team is unlikely to win). Conversely, with hugely negative odds (e.g. -400 to -1000 and more), there is very low risk (i.e. the team is likely to win) but also very little reward.

Thus, the best value (i.e. the balance of risk and reward) is often found when your personal beliefs about the outcome of a game clash with the view of the gambling public. There is no magic formula for determining numerically what constitutes a good value (it’s a matter of skill, experience, and general feel), but I’m often tipped off by a feeling of disbelief – when I have to double-check the odds.

There are a host of betting systems out there on the internet that can help you find good value situations. But ultimately, like any profession, it takes time to develop the skill of finding good moneyline value bets. There’s no get-rich-quick scheme in NFL gambling. In order to make money, you have to be smarter and more disciplined at finding good value and wager only on good value bets.

With over 15 years of experience placing NFL gambling wagers – including more than my fair share of moneyline wagers – I can say with confidence that you certainlycan make money with NFL moneyline betting. It takes time and it takes practice, but personally, I can’t think of many skills that are more fun to develop!

Football Moneyline Betting